Nathan Enderle
QB, Idaho · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #160 (CHI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, position, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #227 (#12 at his position); he went #160, 67 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Never played a regular-season NFL game.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Idaho: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.12 40-yard dash at 240 lbs: faster than 4% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 0 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Last NFL season | Never played |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 240 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.12 s |
| Vertical | 25.5" |
| Broad jump | 102" |
| 3-cone | 7.13 s |
| Shuttle | 4.46 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.2" / 9.699" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #227 overall (#12 QB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 157 | Doug Hogue | redraft #183 |
| 158 | Jermale Hines | redraft #213 |
| 159 | Lee Smith | redraft #144 |
| 161 | Julian Vandervelde | redraft #194 |
| 162 | Chris Carter | redraft #130 |
| 163 | Daniel Kilgore | redraft #59 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.