Lee Smith
TE, Marshall · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #159 (NWE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #155 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#159).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Marshall: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.94 40-yard dash at 266 lbs: faster than 4% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 149 of ~177 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2021 (~84%). Last NFL season: 2021.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 149 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| Receiving | 73 rec, 523 yds, 11 TD |
| Defense | 4 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 266 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.94 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Vertical | 29" |
| Broad jump | 108" |
| 3-cone | 7.13 s |
| Shuttle | 4.28 s |
| Arm / hand | 34.29" / 9.6" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #155 overall (#8 TE) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 156 | Mark LeGree | redraft #232 |
| 157 | Doug Hogue | redraft #183 |
| 158 | Jermale Hines | redraft #213 |
| 160 | Nathan Enderle | redraft #233 |
| 161 | Julian Vandervelde | redraft #194 |
| 162 | Chris Carter | redraft #130 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.