Mychal Rivera
TE, Tennessee · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #184 (OAK)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 61 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2016 (~95%). Last NFL season: 2016.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #239 (#15 at his position); he went #184, 55 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Tennessee: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.81 40-yard dash at 242 lbs: faster than 23% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 61 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 10 |
| Receiving | 146 rec, 1,413 yds, 10 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 242 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.81 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 112" |
| 3-cone | 7.17 s |
| Shuttle | 4.43 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.5" / 10.2" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #239 overall (#15 TE) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 181 | Latavius Murray | redraft #26 |
| 182 | Kenjon Barner | redraft #170 |
| 183 | Rufus Johnson | redraft #229 |
| 185 | DeVonte Holloman | redraft #201 |
| 186 | Justin Brown | redraft #202 |
| 187 | Andre Ellington | redraft #81 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.