Andre Ellington
RB, Clemson · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #187 (ARI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #76 overall (#3 at his position), but he lasted until pick #187: teams let him slide 111 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Clemson: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at 199 lbs: faster than 25% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 65 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2017 (~81%). Last NFL season: 2017.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 65 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 18 |
| Rushing | 418 att, 1,752 yds, 10 TD |
| Receiving | 151 rec, 1,368 yds, 3 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 199 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.61 s |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 9.3" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #76 overall (#3 RB) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 184 | Mychal Rivera | redraft #114 |
| 185 | DeVonte Holloman | redraft #201 |
| 186 | Justin Brown | redraft #202 |
| 188 | Cornelius Washington | redraft #158 |
| 189 | Mike James | redraft #183 |
| 190 | Rex Burkhead | redraft #75 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.