Matt Ryan
QB, Boston Col. · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #3 (ATL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 234 of ~242 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2022 (~97%). Last NFL season: 2022.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #5 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#3).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Boston Col.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.89 40-yard dash at 228 lbs: faster than 28% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 234 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 15 |
| Pro Bowls | 4 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 146 |
| Passing | 5551/8464, 62,792 yds, 381 TD, 183 INT |
| Rushing | 514 att, 1,539 yds, 13 TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, 5 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 228 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.89 s |
| 3-cone | 7.4 s |
| Shuttle | 4.51 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #5 overall (#1 QB) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 1 | Jake Long | redraft #14 |
| 2 | Chris Long | redraft #24 |
| 4 | Darren McFadden | redraft #31 |
| 5 | Glenn Dorsey | redraft #33 |
| 6 | Vernon Gholston | redraft #141 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.