Chris Long
DE, Virginia · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #2 (STL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 162 of ~176 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2018 (~92%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #1 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#2).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Virginia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.75 40-yard dash at 272 lbs: faster than 76% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 162 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 48 |
| Defense | 252 tackles, 70 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 272 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.75 s |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| 3-cone | 7.02 s |
| Shuttle | 4.21 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #1 overall (#1 DE) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 1 | Jake Long | redraft #14 |
| 3 | Matt Ryan | redraft #1 |
| 4 | Darren McFadden | redraft #31 |
| 5 | Glenn Dorsey | redraft #33 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.