Matt Forte
RB, Tulane · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #44 (CHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 146 of ~160 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2017 (~91%). Last NFL season: 2017.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #60 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#44). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Tulane: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.44 40-yard dash at 217 lbs: faster than 79% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 146 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 84 |
| Passing | undefined/1, 0 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 2356 att, 9,796 yds, 54 TD |
| Receiving | 554 rec, 4,672 yds, 21 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 217 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.44 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 6.84 s |
| Shuttle | 4.23 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #60 overall (#8 RB) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 41 | James Hardy | redraft #181 |
| 42 | Eddie Royal | redraft #36 |
| 43 | Tyrell Johnson | redraft #115 |
| 45 | Jordon Dizon | redraft #169 |
| 46 | Jerome Simpson | redraft #88 |
| 47 | Trevor Laws | redraft #132 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.