Jerome Simpson
WR, Coastal Carolina · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #46 (CIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 63 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2015 (~49%). Last NFL season: 2015.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #76 (#11 at his position), close to where he went (#46).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Coastal Carolina: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.42 40-yard dash at 199 lbs: faster than 69% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 63 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 18 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 2 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 150 rec, 2,058 yds, 9 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 199 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.42 s |
| Vertical | 37.5" |
| Broad jump | 136" |
| 3-cone | 7.08 s |
| Shuttle | 4.52 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #76 overall (#11 WR) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 43 | Tyrell Johnson | redraft #115 |
| 44 | Matt Forte | redraft #5 |
| 45 | Jordon Dizon | redraft #169 |
| 47 | Trevor Laws | redraft #132 |
| 48 | Fred Davis | redraft #99 |
| 49 | DeSean Jackson | redraft #7 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.