Mario Williams
DE, North Carolina St. · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #1 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 158 of ~176 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2016 (~90%). Last NFL season: 2016.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #2 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#1).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
North Carolina St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.70 40-yard dash at 295 lbs: faster than 84% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 158 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 4 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 79 |
| Defense | 317 tackles, 97.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 295 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.70 s |
| Bench press | 35 reps |
| Vertical | 40.5" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 7.19 s |
| Shuttle | 4.36 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #2 overall (#1 DE) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 2 | Reggie Bush | redraft #21 |
| 3 | Vince Young | redraft #67 |
| 4 | D'Brickashaw Ferguson | redraft #23 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.