D'Brickashaw Ferguson
T, Virginia · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #4 (NYJ)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 160 of ~160 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2015 (~100%). Last NFL season: 2015.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #3 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#4).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Virginia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.08 40-yard dash at 312 lbs: faster than 78% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 160 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 10 |
| Pro Bowls | 3 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 58 |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 312 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.08 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #3 overall (#1 T) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 1 | Mario Williams | redraft #7 |
| 2 | Reggie Bush | redraft #21 |
| 3 | Vince Young | redraft #67 |
| 5 | A.J. Hawk | redraft #26 |
| 6 | Vernon Davis | redraft #30 |
| 7 | Michael Huff | redraft #66 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.