M.J. Stewart
CB, North Carolina · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #53 (TAM)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #92 (#12 at his position); he went #53, 39 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
North Carolina: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at 200 lbs: faster than 27% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
CB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 98 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~74%). Plus 3 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 101 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 9 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.7 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 9.7 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 3 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 180 tackles, 1 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 200 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.54 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 6.9 s |
| Shuttle | 4.28 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.25" / 9.25" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #92 overall (#12 CB) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 50 | Connor Williams | redraft #56 |
| 51 | Anthony Miller | redraft #127 |
| 52 | Kemoko Turay | redraft #173 |
| 54 | Jessie Bates III | redraft #14 |
| 55 | Donte Jackson | redraft #54 |
| 56 | Duke Dawson | redraft #198 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.