Jessie Bates III
S, Wake Forest · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #54 (CIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 129 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~97%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #53 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#54). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Wake Forest: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at 195 lbs: faster than 42% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
S (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 136 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 55 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 3 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 58.0 |
| Defense | 552 tackles, 1 sacks, 27 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 195 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.50 s |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 6.78 s |
| Shuttle | 4.26 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.63" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #53 overall (#5 S) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 51 | Anthony Miller | redraft #127 |
| 52 | Kemoko Turay | redraft #173 |
| 53 | M.J. Stewart | redraft #145 |
| 55 | Donte Jackson | redraft #54 |
| 56 | Duke Dawson | redraft #198 |
| 57 | P.J. Hall | redraft #138 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.