Luke Schoonmaker
TE, Michigan · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #58 (DAL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, position. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #71 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#58).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Michigan: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.63 40-yard dash at 251 lbs: faster than 76% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 51 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~100%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 57 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.6 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 4.6 |
| Receiving | 52 rec, 468 yds, 3 TD |
| Defense | 8 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 251 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.63 s |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 127" |
| Shuttle | 4.27 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.88" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #71 overall (#8 TE) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 55 | Rashee Rice | redraft #41 |
| 56 | Tyrique Stevenson | redraft #45 |
| 57 | John Michael Schmitz | redraft #46 |
| 59 | O'Cyrus Torrence | redraft #14 |
| 60 | DJ Turner | redraft #59 |
| 61 | Brenton Strange | redraft #84 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.