John Michael Schmitz
OL, Minnesota · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #57 (NYG)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Position
OL (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #48 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#57). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Minnesota: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
No NFL Combine invite on record (nflverse combine data), so teams had less verified testing on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 49% of the time (905 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 40 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~78%). Plus 5 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 45 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 14 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.4 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 15.4 |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine No Combine invite | 49.0% n=905 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 301 lbs |
| Arm / hand | 32.63" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #48 overall (#2 OL) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 54 | Tuli Tuipulotu | redraft #19 |
| 55 | Rashee Rice | redraft #41 |
| 56 | Tyrique Stevenson | redraft #45 |
| 58 | Luke Schoonmaker | redraft #142 |
| 59 | O'Cyrus Torrence | redraft #14 |
| 60 | DJ Turner | redraft #59 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.