Luke McCown
QB, Louisiana Tech · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #106 (CLE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, position, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #157 (#8 at his position); he went #106, 51 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 62 of ~192 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2015 (~32%). Last NFL season: 2015.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Louisiana Tech: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.71 40-yard dash at 208 lbs: faster than 70% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 62 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 8 |
| Passing | 216/356, 2,370 yds, 9 TD, 15 INT |
| Rushing | 34 att, 177 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 208 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.71 s |
| Vertical | 37.5" |
| Broad jump | 125" |
| 3-cone | 6.74 s |
| Shuttle | 4.21 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #157 overall (#8 QB) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 103 | Bo Schobel | redraft #161 |
| 104 | Isaac Sopoaga | redraft #39 |
| 105 | Samie Parker | redraft #100 |
| 107 | Kendyll Pope | redraft #218 |
| 108 | Jerricho Cotchery | redraft #24 |
| 109 | Tim Euhus | redraft #176 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.