Larry Johnson
RB, Penn St. · 2003 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #27 (KAN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Penn St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.45 40-yard dash at 228 lbs: faster than 76% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 85 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2003 through 2011 (~59%). Last NFL season: 2011.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 85 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 51 |
| Passing | 1/3, 4 yds, 1 TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 1427 att, 6,223 yds, 55 TD |
| Receiving | 154 rec, 1,373 yds, 6 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2011 |
The 2003 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2003 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 228 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.45 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Age at draft | 23 |
Picked around him 2003 redraft
| 24 | Dallas Clark | redraft #27 |
| 25 | William Joseph | redraft #117 |
| 26 | Kwame Harris | redraft #79 |
| 28 | Andre Woolfolk | redraft #140 |
| 29 | Nick Barnett | redraft #20 |
| 30 | Sammy Davis | redraft #114 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.