Kevin O'Connell
QB, San Diego St. · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #94 (NWE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, position, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #147 (#8 at his position); he went #94, 53 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 2 of ~16 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2008 (~13%). Last NFL season: 2008.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
San Diego St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at 225 lbs: faster than 83% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 2 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Passing | 4/6, 23 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 3 att, -6 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2008 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 225 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.61 s |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| 3-cone | 7.01 s |
| Shuttle | 4.38 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #147 overall (#8 QB) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 91 | Jermichael Finley | redraft #59 |
| 92 | Cliff Avril | redraft #21 |
| 93 | Philip Wheeler | redraft #53 |
| 95 | Mario Manningham | redraft #76 |
| 96 | Chad Rinehart | redraft #74 |
| 97 | Andre Caldwell | redraft #108 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.