Kenny McKinley
WR, South Carolina · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #141 (DEN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, position, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #173 (#22 at his position); he went #141, 32 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 8 of ~16 possible regular-season games from 2009 through 2009 (~50%). Last NFL season: 2009.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
South Carolina: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.37 40-yard dash at 189 lbs: faster than 85% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 8 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2009 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 189 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.37 s |
| Vertical | 37" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| 3-cone | 6.96 s |
| Shuttle | 4.1 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #173 overall (#22 WR) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 138 | William Middleton | redraft #121 |
| 139 | Colin Brown | redraft #163 |
| 140 | Johnny Knox | redraft #80 |
| 142 | Kevin Huber | redraft #67 |
| 143 | DeAngelo Smith | redraft #201 |
| 144 | Jarett Dillard | redraft #148 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.