Johnny Knox
WR, Abilene Christian · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #140 (CHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 45 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2009 through 2011 (~94%). Last NFL season: 2011.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #115 (#15 at his position), close to where he went (#140). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Abilene Christian: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.34 40-yard dash at 185 lbs: faster than 91% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 45 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 20 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 2 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 133 rec, 2,214 yds, 12 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2011 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 185 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.34 s |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| 3-cone | 6.81 s |
| Shuttle | 4.15 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #115 overall (#15 WR) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 137 | Jason Phillips | redraft #161 |
| 138 | William Middleton | redraft #121 |
| 139 | Colin Brown | redraft #163 |
| 141 | Kenny McKinley | redraft #213 |
| 142 | Kevin Huber | redraft #67 |
| 143 | DeAngelo Smith | redraft #201 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.