Kenneth Gainwell
RB, Memphis · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #150 (PHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 82 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~96%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #142 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#150). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Memphis: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.42 40-yard dash at 201 lbs: faster than 82% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 89 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 24 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 25.2 |
| Passing | 1/1, 17 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 413 att, 1,783 yds, 17 TD |
| Receiving | 187 rec, 1,268 yds, 5 TD |
| Defense | 7 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 8", 201 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.42 s |
| Bench press | 21 reps |
| Arm / hand | 30.63" / 9.88" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #142 overall (#8 RB) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 147 | Brevin Jordan | redraft #154 |
| 148 | Ta'Quon Graham | redraft #117 |
| 149 | Evan McPherson | redraft #85 |
| 151 | Larry Borom | redraft #72 |
| 152 | Caden Sterns | redraft #167 |
| 153 | Tony Fields | redraft #118 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.