Caden Sterns
DB, Texas · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #152 (DEN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 21 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2023 (~41%). Last NFL season: 2023.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #139 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#152).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.41 40-yard dash at 202 lbs: faster than 80% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 21 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 3.0 |
| Defense | 36 tackles, 2 sacks, 4 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 202 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.41 s |
| Bench press | 14 reps |
| Vertical | 42" |
| Broad jump | 128" |
| 3-cone | 6.96 s |
| Shuttle | 4.13 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.13" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #139 overall (#10 DB) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 149 | Evan McPherson | redraft #85 |
| 150 | Kenneth Gainwell | redraft #45 |
| 151 | Larry Borom | redraft #72 |
| 153 | Tony Fields | redraft #118 |
| 154 | Michael Carter II | redraft #102 |
| 155 | Jaylon Moore | redraft #94 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.