Kellen Clemens
QB, Oregon · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #49 (NYJ)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 64 of ~192 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2017 (~33%). Last NFL season: 2017.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #55 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#49).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oregon: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.89 40-yard dash at 224 lbs: faster than 28% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 64 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 10 |
| Passing | 350/638, 4,053 yds, 16 TD, 21 INT |
| Rushing | 85 att, 227 yds, 3 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 224 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.89 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #55 overall (#4 QB) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 46 | Joe Klopfenstein | redraft #167 |
| 47 | Daryn Colledge | redraft #25 |
| 48 | Cedric Griffin | redraft #85 |
| 50 | Marcus McNeill | redraft #36 |
| 51 | Ryan Cook | redraft #86 |
| 52 | Greg Jennings | redraft #15 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.