Keith McGill
DB, Utah · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #116 (OAK)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age. Details below.
- Age
25 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #72 overall (#9 at his position), but he lasted until pick #116: teams let him slide 44 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Utah: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.51 40-yard dash at 211 lbs: faster than 38% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 54 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2017 (~84%). Last NFL season: 2017.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 54 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| Defense | 34 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 211 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.51 s |
| Vertical | 39" |
| Broad jump | 129" |
| 3-cone | 7.29 s |
| Shuttle | 4.18 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.2" / 10.2" |
| Age at draft | 25 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #72 overall (#9 DB) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 113 | Andre Williams | redraft #132 |
| 114 | Aaron Colvin | redraft #91 |
| 115 | Shaquelle Evans | redraft #229 |
| 117 | Ka'Deem Carey | redraft #164 |
| 118 | Martavis Bryant | redraft #82 |
| 119 | Anthony Hitchens | redraft #33 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.