Keith Ellison
LB, Oregon St. · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #178 (BUF)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- School
Oregon St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.76 40-yard dash at 235 lbs: faster than 18% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 58 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2010 (~73%). Last NFL season: 2010.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 58 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 19 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 6 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 164 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 235 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.76 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 32.5" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| 3-cone | 7.22 s |
| Shuttle | 4.16 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 175 | Delanie Walker | redraft #52 |
| 176 | Kevin Boothe | redraft #78 |
| 177 | Jonathan Lewis | redraft #214 |
| 179 | Dee McCann | redraft #237 |
| 180 | Lawrence Vickers | redraft #172 |
| 181 | Babatunde Oshinowo | redraft #221 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.