Justin Miller
DB, Clemson · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #57 (NYJ)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 46 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2012 (~36%). Last NFL season: 2012.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #35 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#57).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Clemson: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
No NFL Combine invite on record (nflverse combine data), so teams had less verified testing on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 49% of the time (905 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 46 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 15 |
| Defense | 81 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine No Combine invite | 49.0% n=905 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 201 lbs |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #35 overall (#6 DB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 54 | Eric Shelton | redraft #196 |
| 55 | Roscoe Parrish | redraft #101 |
| 56 | Darrent Williams | redraft #114 |
| 58 | Terrence Murphy | redraft #211 |
| 59 | Jonathan Babineaux | redraft #19 |
| 60 | Kelvin Hayden | redraft #76 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.