Justin Jefferson
WR, LSU · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #22 (MIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 93 of ~101 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2025 (~92%). Plus 5 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #14 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#22). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at 202 lbs: faster than 64% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 98 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 4 |
| First-team All-Pro | 2 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 65 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.7 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 66.7 |
| Passing | 5/8, 91 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 16 att, 27 yds, 1 TD |
| Receiving | 598 rec, 8,738 yds, 45 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 202 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.43 s |
| Vertical | 37.5" |
| Broad jump | 126" |
| Arm / hand | 33" / 9.13" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #14 overall (#4 WR) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 19 | Damon Arnette | redraft #199 |
| 20 | K'Lavon Chaisson | redraft #79 |
| 21 | Jalen Reagor | redraft #123 |
| 23 | Kenneth Murray | redraft #36 |
| 24 | Cesar Ruiz | redraft #41 |
| 25 | Brandon Aiyuk | redraft #21 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.