Brandon Aiyuk
WR, Arizona St. · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #25 (SFO)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #23 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#25). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Arizona St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at 205 lbs: faster than 37% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 69 of ~84 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2024 (~82%). Last NFL season: 2024.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 69 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 39 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 39.0 |
| Rushing | 13 att, 117 yds, 2 TD |
| Receiving | 294 rec, 4,305 yds, 25 TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 205 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.50 s |
| Bench press | 11 reps |
| Vertical | 40" |
| Broad jump | 128" |
| Arm / hand | 33.5" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #23 overall (#5 WR) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 22 | Justin Jefferson | redraft #5 |
| 23 | Kenneth Murray | redraft #36 |
| 24 | Cesar Ruiz | redraft #41 |
| 26 | Jordan Love | redraft #14 |
| 27 | Jordyn Brooks | redraft #12 |
| 28 | Patrick Queen | redraft #8 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.