Justin Jackson
RB, Northwestern · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #251 (LAC)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #184 overall (#15 at his position), but he lasted until pick #251: teams let him slide 67 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Northwestern: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.52 40-yard dash at 199 lbs: faster than 53% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 59 of ~82 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2022 (~72%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 59 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 12 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 12.0 |
| Rushing | 248 att, 1,210 yds, 5 TD |
| Receiving | 77 rec, 609 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 10 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 199 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.52 s |
| Bench press | 13 reps |
| Vertical | 38.5" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| 3-cone | 6.81 s |
| Shuttle | 4.07 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.63" / 9.25" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #184 overall (#15 RB) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 248 | Kendall Donnerson | redraft #254 |
| 249 | Logan Woodside | redraft #228 |
| 250 | Ryan Izzo | redraft #192 |
| 252 | Rod Taylor | redraft #255 |
| 253 | Auden Tate | redraft #174 |
| 254 | Korey Cunningham | redraft #186 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.