Justin Geisinger
G, Vanderbilt · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #197 (BUF)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #239 (#12 at his position); he went #197, 42 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 6 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2008 (~9%). Last NFL season: 2008.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Vanderbilt: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.38 40-yard dash at 322 lbs: faster than 14% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
G (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 6 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Last NFL season | 2008 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 322 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.38 s |
| Bench press | 34 reps |
| Vertical | 25" |
| Broad jump | 95" |
| 3-cone | 7.87 s |
| Shuttle | 4.62 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #239 overall (#12 G) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 194 | Pat Thomas | redraft #145 |
| 195 | Craig Bragg | redraft #239 |
| 196 | Tony Jackson | redraft #240 |
| 198 | Joel Dreessen | redraft #97 |
| 199 | Khari Long | redraft #218 |
| 200 | Chris Myers | redraft #16 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.