Joel Dreessen
TE, Colorado St. · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #198 (NYJ)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #80 overall (#3 at his position), but he lasted until pick #198: teams let him slide 118 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Colorado St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.72 40-yard dash at 260 lbs: faster than 51% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 120 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2013 (~83%). Last NFL season: 2013.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 120 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 16 |
| Receiving | 158 rec, 1,767 yds, 19 TD |
| Defense | 31 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 260 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.72 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| 3-cone | 7.09 s |
| Shuttle | 4.01 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #80 overall (#3 TE) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 195 | Craig Bragg | redraft #239 |
| 196 | Tony Jackson | redraft #240 |
| 197 | Justin Geisinger | redraft #208 |
| 199 | Khari Long | redraft #218 |
| 200 | Chris Myers | redraft #16 |
| 201 | DeAndra Cobb | redraft #213 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.