Justin Fargas
FB, USC · 2003 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #96 (OAK)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
USC: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.35 40-yard dash at 219 lbs: faster than 97% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
FB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 92 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2003 through 2009 (~82%). Last NFL season: 2009.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 92 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 20 |
| Rushing | 827 att, 3,369 yds, 10 TD |
| Receiving | 77 rec, 523 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 20 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2009 |
The 2003 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2003 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 219 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.35 s |
| Bench press | 27 reps |
| Broad jump | 137" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
Picked around him 2003 redraft
| 93 | Chris Brown | redraft #69 |
| 94 | Angelo Crowell | redraft #90 |
| 95 | Billy McMullen | redraft #154 |
| 97 | Chris Simms | redraft #131 |
| 98 | Dennis Weathersby | redraft #224 |
| 99 | Artose Pinner | redraft #133 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.