Julian Peterson
LB, Michigan St. · 2000 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #16 (SFO)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 158 of ~176 possible regular-season games from 2000 through 2010 (~90%). Last NFL season: 2010.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- School
Michigan St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.68 40-yard dash at 231 lbs: faster than 40% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 158 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 69 |
| Defense | 602 tackles, 51.5 sacks, 8 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2000 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2000 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 231 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.68 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
Picked around him 2000 redraft
| 13 | John Abraham | redraft #3 |
| 14 | Bubba Franks | redraft #83 |
| 15 | Deltha O'Neal | redraft #33 |
| 17 | Sebastian Janikowski | redraft #38 |
| 18 | Chad Pennington | redraft #23 |
| 19 | Shaun Alexander | redraft #11 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.