Chad Pennington
QB, Marshall · 2000 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #18 (NYJ)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Marshall: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.81 40-yard dash at 229 lbs: faster than 48% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 89 of ~176 possible regular-season games from 2000 through 2010 (~51%). Last NFL season: 2010.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 89 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 55 |
| Passing | 1632/2471, 17,823 yds, 102 TD, 64 INT |
| Rushing | 180 att, 465 yds, 7 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2000 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2000 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 229 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.81 s |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 111" |
| 3-cone | 7.12 s |
| Shuttle | 4.16 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
Picked around him 2000 redraft
| 15 | Deltha O'Neal | redraft #33 |
| 16 | Julian Peterson | redraft #10 |
| 17 | Sebastian Janikowski | redraft #38 |
| 19 | Shaun Alexander | redraft #11 |
| 20 | Stockar McDougle | redraft #77 |
| 21 | Sylvester Morris | redraft #133 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.