Joshua Williams
CB, Fayetteville St. · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #135 (KAN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 64 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2025 (~94%). Plus 2 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #174 (#22 at his position); he went #135, 39 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Fayetteville St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at 195 lbs: faster than 30% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
CB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 66 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.9 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 6.9 |
| Defense | 68 tackles, 1 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 195 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.53 s |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| Arm / hand | 33" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #174 overall (#22 CB) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 132 | Romeo Doubs | redraft #40 |
| 133 | Jake Camarda | redraft #131 |
| 134 | Spencer Burford | redraft #59 |
| 136 | Cordell Volson | redraft #49 |
| 137 | Bailey Zappe | redraft #201 |
| 138 | Calvin Austin III | redraft #104 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.