Bailey Zappe
QB, Western Kentucky · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #137 (NWE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 15 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2024 (~29%). Last NFL season: 2024.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #161 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#137).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Western Kentucky: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.88 40-yard dash at 215 lbs: faster than 31% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 15 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 2.0 |
| Passing | 208/335, 2,223 yds, 12 TD, 14 INT |
| Rushing | 29 att, 85 yds, 1 TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, -6 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 215 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.88 s |
| Vertical | 30" |
| Broad jump | 109" |
| 3-cone | 7.19 s |
| Shuttle | 4.4 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.5" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #161 overall (#7 QB) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 134 | Spencer Burford | redraft #59 |
| 135 | Joshua Williams | redraft #142 |
| 136 | Cordell Volson | redraft #49 |
| 138 | Calvin Austin III | redraft #104 |
| 139 | Isaiah Likely | redraft #72 |
| 140 | Zach Bako-Bewele | redraft #31 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.