Josh Williams
DT, Michigan · 2000 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #122 (IND)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Michigan: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.90 40-yard dash at 282 lbs: faster than 51% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 73 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2000 through 2005 (~76%). Last NFL season: 2005.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 73 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 19 |
| Defense | 117 tackles, 8 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2005 |
The 2000 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2000 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 282 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.90 s |
| Vertical | 30.5" |
| Broad jump | 111" |
| 3-cone | 7.22 s |
| Shuttle | 4.25 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
Picked around him 2000 redraft
| 119 | Isaiah Kacyvenski | redraft #95 |
| 120 | Alvin McKinley | redraft #82 |
| 121 | Avion Black | redraft #173 |
| 123 | Joey Chustz | redraft #224 |
| 124 | Bobby Myers | redraft #157 |
| 125 | Reggie Austin | redraft #156 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.