Alvin McKinley
DE, Mississippi St. · 2000 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #120 (CAR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- School
Mississippi St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.09 40-yard dash at 289 lbs: faster than 20% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 97 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2000 through 2007 (~76%). Last NFL season: 2007.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 97 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 22 |
| Defense | 146 tackles, 11.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2007 |
The 2000 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2000 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 289 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.09 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 27.5" |
| Broad jump | 102" |
| 3-cone | 7.73 s |
| Shuttle | 4.61 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
Picked around him 2000 redraft
| 117 | Deon Dyer | redraft #196 |
| 118 | Tyrone Carter | redraft #66 |
| 119 | Isaiah Kacyvenski | redraft #95 |
| 121 | Avion Black | redraft #173 |
| 122 | Josh Williams | redraft #85 |
| 123 | Joey Chustz | redraft #224 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.