Josh Robinson
RB, Mississippi St. · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #205 (IND)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #240 (#21 at his position); he went #205, 35 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 5 of ~16 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2015 (~31%). Last NFL season: 2015.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Mississippi St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.70 40-yard dash at 217 lbs: faster than 9% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 5 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Rushing | 17 att, 39 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 6 rec, 33 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 8", 217 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.70 s |
| Bench press | 21 reps |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #240 overall (#21 RB) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 202 | A.J. Derby | redraft #173 |
| 203 | Darius Kilgo | redraft #170 |
| 204 | Darren Waller | redraft #53 |
| 206 | Aaron Ripkowski | redraft #175 |
| 207 | Amarlo Herrera | redraft #217 |
| 208 | Andy Gallik | redraft #157 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.