Darren Waller
WR, Georgia Tech · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #204 (BAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #156 overall (#24 at his position), but he lasted until pick #204: teams let him slide 48 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Georgia Tech: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at 238 lbs: faster than 53% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 100 of ~181 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2025 (career total from PFR, which may already include some 2026 games) (~55%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 100 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 33 |
| Rushing | 4 att, 30 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 387 rec, 4,555 yds, 28 TD |
| Defense | 10 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 238 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.46 s |
| Bench press | 12 reps |
| Vertical | 37" |
| Broad jump | 125" |
| 3-cone | 7.07 s |
| Shuttle | 4.25 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #156 overall (#24 WR) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 201 | Bud Sasser | redraft #244 |
| 202 | A.J. Derby | redraft #173 |
| 203 | Darius Kilgo | redraft #170 |
| 205 | Josh Robinson | redraft #212 |
| 206 | Aaron Ripkowski | redraft #175 |
| 207 | Amarlo Herrera | redraft #217 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.