Josh Doctson
WR, TCU · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #22 (WAS)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 34 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2019 (~53%). Last NFL season: 2019.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #15 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#22).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
TCU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at 202 lbs: faster than 37% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 34 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 9 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 9.0 |
| Rushing | 1 att, -14 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 81 rec, 1,100 yds, 8 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 202 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.50 s |
| Bench press | 14 reps |
| Vertical | 41" |
| Broad jump | 131" |
| 3-cone | 6.84 s |
| Shuttle | 4.08 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.5" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #15 overall (#2 WR) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 19 | Shaq Lawson | redraft #78 |
| 20 | Darron Lee | redraft #87 |
| 21 | Will Fuller | redraft #77 |
| 23 | Laquon Treadwell | redraft #122 |
| 24 | William Jackson III | redraft #88 |
| 25 | Artie Burns | redraft #95 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.