Darron Lee
OLB, Ohio St. · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #20 (NYJ)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #13 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#20).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Ohio St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.47 40-yard dash at 232 lbs: faster than 95% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OLB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 58 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2020 (~73%). Last NFL season: 2020.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 58 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 19 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 19.0 |
| Defense | 178 tackles, 4 sacks, 3 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 232 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.47 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 133" |
| 3-cone | 7.12 s |
| Shuttle | 4.2 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #13 overall (#3 OLB) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 17 | Keanu Neal | redraft #75 |
| 18 | Ryan Kelly | redraft #23 |
| 19 | Shaq Lawson | redraft #78 |
| 21 | Will Fuller | redraft #77 |
| 22 | Josh Doctson | redraft #126 |
| 23 | Laquon Treadwell | redraft #122 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.