Jordy Nelson
WR, Kansas St. · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #36 (GNB)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 151 of ~176 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2018 (~86%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #47 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#36). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Kansas St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.51 40-yard dash at 217 lbs: faster than 33% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 151 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 73 |
| Rushing | 1 att, -2 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 613 rec, 8,587 yds, 72 TD |
| Defense | 5 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 217 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.51 s |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 123" |
| 3-cone | 7.03 s |
| Shuttle | 4.35 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #47 overall (#6 WR) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 33 | Donnie Avery | redraft #80 |
| 34 | Devin Thomas | redraft #151 |
| 35 | Brandon Flowers | redraft #29 |
| 37 | Curtis Lofton | redraft #22 |
| 38 | John Carlson | redraft #94 |
| 39 | Chilo Rachal | redraft #83 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.