John Carlson
TE, Notre Dame · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #38 (SEA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #54 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#38).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Notre Dame: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.88 40-yard dash at 251 lbs: faster than 10% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 90 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2014 (~80%). Last NFL season: 2014.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 90 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 16 |
| Receiving | 210 rec, 2,256 yds, 15 TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 251 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.88 s |
| Bench press | 20 reps |
| Vertical | 30.5" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| 3-cone | 7.12 s |
| Shuttle | 4.28 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #54 overall (#3 TE) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 35 | Brandon Flowers | redraft #29 |
| 36 | Jordy Nelson | redraft #8 |
| 37 | Curtis Lofton | redraft #22 |
| 39 | Chilo Rachal | redraft #83 |
| 40 | Tracy Porter | redraft #48 |
| 41 | James Hardy | redraft #181 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.