Jordan Hill
DT, Penn St. · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #87 (SEA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #133 (#12 at his position); he went #87, 46 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 31 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2016 (~48%). Last NFL season: 2016.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Penn St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.23 40-yard dash at 303 lbs: faster than 7% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 31 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| Defense | 31 tackles, 7 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 303 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.23 s |
| Bench press | 28 reps |
| Vertical | 22.5" |
| Broad jump | 103" |
| 3-cone | 7.49 s |
| Shuttle | 4.51 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.4" / 10.2" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #133 overall (#12 DT) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 84 | Shawn Williams | redraft #61 |
| 85 | Jordan Reed | redraft #62 |
| 86 | Hugh Thornton | redraft #87 |
| 88 | Corey Lemonier | redraft #167 |
| 89 | Brennan Williams | redraft #232 |
| 90 | Kayvon Webster | redraft #127 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.