Johnnie Lee Higgins
WR, Texas-El Paso · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #99 (OAK)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, position. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #131 (#17 at his position); he went #99, 32 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas-El Paso: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.48 40-yard dash at 186 lbs: faster than 44% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 60 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2010 (~94%). Last NFL season: 2010.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 60 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 9 |
| Rushing | 7 att, 58 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 57 rec, 779 yds, 4 TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 186 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.48 s |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| 3-cone | 6.62 s |
| Shuttle | 4.32 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #131 overall (#17 WR) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 96 | Anthony Waters | redraft #180 |
| 97 | Ray McDonald | redraft #41 |
| 98 | Quinn Pitcock | redraft #197 |
| 100 | Michael Bush | redraft #58 |
| 101 | Adam Podlesh | redraft #126 |
| 102 | Brian Robison | redraft #29 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.