JJ Nelson
WR, Ala-Birmingham · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #159 (ARI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Ala-Birmingham: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.28 40-yard dash at 156 lbs: faster than 98% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 58 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2019 (~73%). Last NFL season: 2019.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 58 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 12 |
| Rushing | 12 att, 120 yds, 1 TD |
| Receiving | 85 rec, 1,475 yds, 11 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 156 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.28 s |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 127" |
| 3-cone | 7.02 s |
| Shuttle | 4.15 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 156 | Tony Lippett | redraft #137 |
| 157 | C.J. Uzomah | redraft #98 |
| 158 | Shaquille Riddick | redraft #236 |
| 160 | Jesse James | redraft #108 |
| 161 | Neiron Ball | redraft #194 |
| 162 | Kenny Bell | redraft #237 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.