Jesse James
TE, Penn St. · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #160 (PIT)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #237 (#14 at his position); he went #160, 77 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Penn St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.83 40-yard dash at 261 lbs: faster than 18% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 104 of ~130 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2022 (~80%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 104 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 12 |
| Receiving | 157 rec, 1,522 yds, 12 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 261 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.83 s |
| Bench press | 26 reps |
| Vertical | 37.5" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 7.53 s |
| Shuttle | 4.5 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #237 overall (#14 TE) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 157 | C.J. Uzomah | redraft #98 |
| 158 | Shaquille Riddick | redraft #236 |
| 159 | JJ Nelson | redraft #106 |
| 161 | Neiron Ball | redraft #194 |
| 162 | Kenny Bell | redraft #237 |
| 163 | Ryan Russell | redraft #162 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.