Jerick McKinnon
RB, Georgia Southern · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #96 (MIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #178 (#15 at his position); he went #96, 82 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Georgia Southern: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.41 40-yard dash at 209 lbs: faster than 86% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 116 of ~163 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2023 (~71%). Last NFL season: 2023.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 116 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 32 |
| Passing | 1/2, 4 yds, 1 TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 660 att, 2,650 yds, 14 TD |
| Receiving | 269 rec, 2,048 yds, 20 TD |
| Defense | 8 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 209 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.41 s |
| Bench press | 32 reps |
| Vertical | 40.5" |
| Broad jump | 132" |
| 3-cone | 6.83 s |
| Shuttle | 4.12 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.2" / 8.5" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #178 overall (#15 RB) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 93 | Brandon Linder | redraft #54 |
| 94 | Terrance West | redraft #113 |
| 95 | Michael Schofield | redraft #39 |
| 97 | Dri Archer | redraft #206 |
| 98 | Richard Rodgers | redraft #97 |
| 99 | Crockett Gillmore | redraft #152 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.