Jeff Baca
G, UCLA · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #196 (MIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 4 of ~16 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2013 (~25%). Last NFL season: 2013.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #132 overall (#8 at his position), but he lasted until pick #196: teams let him slide 64 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
UCLA: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.03 40-yard dash at 302 lbs: faster than 86% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
G (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 4 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 302 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.03 s |
| Vertical | 26.5" |
| Broad jump | 100" |
| 3-cone | 7.26 s |
| Shuttle | 4.44 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.2" / 9.6" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #132 overall (#8 G) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 193 | Nate Palmer | redraft #124 |
| 194 | Spencer Ware | redraft #86 |
| 195 | Alan Bonner | redraft #243 |
| 197 | Cobi Hamilton | redraft #190 |
| 198 | Chris Jones | redraft #102 |
| 199 | Theo Riddick | redraft #64 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.