Jaylon Jones
DB, Texas A&M · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #221 (IND)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 44 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~86%). Plus 2 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #211 (#27 at his position), close to where he went (#221). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas A&M: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.57 40-yard dash at 200 lbs: faster than 18% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 46 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 11 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 11.1 |
| Defense | 112 tackles, 0 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 200 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.57 s |
| Bench press | 14 reps |
| Vertical | 38" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| 3-cone | 6.88 s |
| Shuttle | 4.3 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.75" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #211 overall (#27 DB) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 218 | Travis Bell | redraft #248 |
| 219 | Antoine Green | redraft #236 |
| 220 | Zack Kuntz | redraft #249 |
| 222 | DeWayne McBride | redraft #255 |
| 223 | Ethan Evans | redraft #123 |
| 224 | DeMarcco Hellams | redraft #158 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.